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Factors affecting the outcome of a football match

The result of a football match depends on a number of factors. Among them is the identity of the referee. In particular, his interpretation of the key events of the match can play a decisive role in the fate of individual confrontations.

As is the case with footballers, the ability and experience of the referees varies, and they also tend to make mistakes, although they are extremely rare.

Thus, it is inevitable that fans or coaches feel that their team is being judged unfairly, and sometimes there are complaints that a particular referee is constantly showing bias against a particular team.

If this were indeed the case, it would entail obvious shifts in the odds for matches with these teams when a specific referee is appointed. But do we have any statistics that support these widely held beliefs?

The English Premier League has about twenty referees for 380 games of the season, but most of these matches are played by about half of this number of referees. During the 2013/2014 season, twelve referees served twenty or more matches. It is therefore inevitable that the team will meet with the same referee on a regular basis. It is not uncommon for many referees to judge a team’s matches more than 20 times throughout their career. For example, Mike Dean started his career in the Premier League in 2000/2001 and successfully played 350 first-class matches.

Breaking the myth of bias in referees

In order to make sure that the referees do not show any bias or preference towards the individual teams, we took the sequence of matches when the team did not perform well when serving the games by the specific referee and compared them with the subsequent games where he was judging again. That is, we studied the possibility that the “black lane” with this referee will continue, outside the general statistics.

For this purpose, we took the sequences of 10 matches, in which the team played worse than expected, if you look at the bookmaker’s coefficients, when working with a single referee. We did it for the 50 blackest stripes of four English top clubs – Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal and Manchester United – between 2000 and 2013. After that, we studied the result of the match following each series of 10 bad games for the team, while refereeing the same referee.

Expectations, based on the odds for these matches, were such that the teams had to win a total of 25 out of 50 games and 12 times draw, with a success rate of 0.62. In fact, the teams won 26 times and drew 11 times in these 50 matches, which almost coincided with expectations.

In short, the bad results are within the statistics and are fully reflected in the pre-match expectations. Almost certainly, the sequence of bad performances is just a random set of results, not the influence of the referee’s personality, contrary to general opinion.

Sometimes referees can make mistakes. However, the Premier League referees are not biased, and it would be foolish for a football betting player to bet on the outcome of a match based on the referee’s personality.

Referee versus Arsenal.

Dean was appointed to more than 30 English Premier League matches with Arsenal, and the specific period from 2009 to 2013 has led fans to believe that Dean is an extremely “ugly” judge for the canoniers.

One victory and five draws and a success rate of 0.23 over 15 matches are quite eloquent indicators, even taking into account the high status of many matches, where Arsenal played against their opponents in the fight for the title. Editor’s note: for the calculation of the success rate, 1 draw equals 0.5 wins. That is, 1 victory and 5 draws is 3.5 (three and a half) victories, which is 23% of 15 matches.

The estimated probability of the outcome of the match, which can be calculated on the basis of pre-match coefficients, predicted an average of 6 Arsenal victories and 4 draws in these 15 matches. That is, the expected success rate was more than 0.5 per game, while in reality it was much lower – 0.23.

If you imitate the results of these 15 games thousands of times, the success rate of 0.23 or lower will be extremely rare – about every 250th attempt.

This material will be devoted to the activities of the betting company “Marathon” and review the main details of this service. This BC was recently included in the number of legal bookmakers in our country, and in such a short period of time the company has already gained considerable authority among the predictors. Despite its “legal youth”, “Marathonbet” is already recognized as one of the best bookmakers by some features, and for beginners it will be very useful to know what advantages this office can stand out from the majority of competitors, and for what criteria should be appreciated its activities.

General information about the company

The bookmaker started its activity in 2010, but at that time the bookmaker was not legal. The process of legalization for this service was launched only about two years ago, that is, it is clear that the service is relatively young, if we consider it from the standpoint of legalized. “Marathon” took bets on sports not only on the site, but also in the PPP, but to the legal company at the moment it has absolutely nothing to do with it – now we are just talking about the introduction of offline segment in the work of the BC, and it is not yet known how it all ends.

Active participation of the office in question also takes part in sponsorship – at the moment this BC acts as a patron for football clubs Fulham and Lazio. In addition, the company tries to take part in sponsorship of sports projects, capital student competitions, etc. In other words, the bookmaker tries to attract attention not only by advertising tools and development of the bonus campaign, but also by other, more useful means, and participation in the social sports life of the country is the best thing that a bookmaker can do for this purpose.

A little bit about the site

This is the address you should keep in your browser bookmarks, if you intend to become a client of the company – after all, when searching the site on the Internet you may come across an illegal version. Attention is drawn to the inconspicuous, but pretty nice design, which does not irritate its brightness and does not resource is not overloaded with annoying advertising. This contributes to the fact that the navigation on the service is very convenient, with which you can freely navigate through the available sections.

In general, the site can be called multifunctional. With a more detailed study after registration, you will realize that there are interesting options in your personal account, the betting mechanism is very simple, and the choice of events in the line is also not a problem. In general, it is worth noting that the service itself is only from a visual point of view is very similar to the illegal, it may even appear in the details, and so each predictor should be as careful as possible when switching to the service and check the address at which you enter the resource.

Registration and identification

And in order to get acquainted with all these options, it is worth registering. As shown in the lower screenshots, you click on the “Registration” button on the main page, after which you fill in your personal data – name, date of birth, phone, mail, etc. After that it will be necessary to confirm your contact information. In fact, this can be considered completed registration, because the account will be created. But remember that for registration you should use the phone on which the verified qiwi-purse is registered, otherwise you will not be able to pass identification.

For verification you will initially need to upload the documents to the site – the front of the passport, as well as the spread of this document with registration. Generally speaking, these documents are checked pretty quickly, and then you will have to go through a video conference with the operator via one of the following applications: What’s App, Skype or Viber. After that, all you have to do is confirm your phone – it will receive a message with a code that you have to send in a reply message to the same number. That’s it, basically – now you can be considered a customer of the company in question.

Live Mode

Currently, the online mode tries to play most of the predictors, because it is in this section is possible to catch higher odds, as well as follow the competition to see with their own eyes how the situation in the match is changing. It also gives you a reason to make a bet – in other words, live is becoming an increasingly important mode for any player. And on this site to play online is very convenient – these are the features of the service under consideration.

Painting bets in live is very good, and it is reduced in comparison with the pre-match it is insignificant – in the top matches, this difference is about a dozen positions, but not the most popular events and even less. The division into sports and championships is as clear and strict as in the pre-match. Externally, both sections are very similar, but the key difference is the time of betting – it is several seconds longer in the live stream. However, the difference is not so big to create any inconvenience for bettors during the game, so the Liver and enjoy the site under consideration.

Today there are two BC Fonbet – Russian and international – operating in the Internet. Visually, their sites are similar and even both use the same line for bets, but only a foreign company operates under the license of the gambling regulator Curacao in the .com domain zone, so to access the site will need a working mirror or other way to bypass the blocking. Also, there are significant differences in logos, in the top tabs of the site (the offshore bank has access to betting, live casino, TV games and virtual sports), the way of registration and identification.

The official website of BC Fonbet (legal operator) has an intuitive interface and attractive design. Tabs with current bonuses, promotions and instructions on playing online bets are thoroughly worked out. On the main page you can see large banners with advertising, live line, and below you can see the sports news. Even lower are the title signs and awards. Nearby there are information links to additional information about the bookmaker’s office, functionality and FAQ section.

Registration and Identification with BC Fonbet

Registration and identification in BC Fonbet is available not only to adult citizens, but also to foreign players. The main condition is the phone number of any operator, permanent or temporary residence registration and passport. Registration at the Fonbet bookmaker’s office is simple and takes several minutes.

When filling out the registration form, if you have a QIWI purse with the status of “Professional”, you must specify it in the field “Phone number”. Enter a valid e-mail and phone number, as they will be sent confirmation codes.

Identification in BC Fonbet is free of charge. You can use one of the three methods available for this purpose:

Remotely (via video call). You need to attach a passport scan in the “Identification” section of your personal cabinet, mark the convenient way of video identification, date and time (when you can answer) and wait for the call from an employee.

Using the Fonbet card. You should personally visit the nearest ground club of the company, show your passport, get the card and complete identification in your personal cabinet. The entire verification process takes about 10 minutes.

According to the QIWI wallet. It is enough to come to any Euroset cellular communication salon or Contact money transfer system branch, show your passport, dictate the phone number, which was declared during registration at BC Fonbet and inform that you need to check your passport data for the Kiwi service.

At the same time, there is no need to bind and verify payment instruments, as they are automatically confirmed and bind to your personal cabinet when you make a first deposit to the Fonbet.

Payment systems and account currencies of BC Fonbet

Deposit

On the official website, in the mobile version or via the application of BC Fonbet on Android and iOS (iPhone) to replenish the deposit is possible only in Russian rubles. For this purpose, the following payment services are presented here:

• Bank cards: VISA, MasterCard and MIR.
• Electronic wallets: QIWI and Yandex.
• Mobile commerce: MTS, Megafon, Tele2 and Beeline.

Bookmaker’s office of Fonbet does not charge a commission for depositing the account, except for the use of mobile operators – 10 rubles. Unfortunately, it is very difficult to answer the question: “What way to choose to replenish the deposit in BC Fonbet?

Withdrawal of funds

In terms of withdrawal of the winnings BC Fonbet differs from the majority of the legal companies, because here it is allowed to withdraw funds to the accounts of mobile operators. However, it is possible to withdraw money to the Fonbet only for the payment service, through which the deposit was replenished earlier.

Do not forget that in the bookmaker’s office of Fonbet on the withdrawal of funds is subject to some restriction – you need to “pass” all the money deposited in the account through the interactive betting on sports. Applications for withdrawal of money to the Fonbet are accepted round the clock. In this case, the terms of credit card method is up to 5 days, the rest – up to 3 hours.

Winning tax

Since the Fonbet bookmaker’s office is a legal company, it acts as a tax agent when withdrawing money from the participants of interactive rates and automatically withholds 13% personal income tax from Russian citizens and 30% from non-residents of Russia. The tax base is calculated according to the formula: Winning – bet = net income.